WHAT IS CHINA'S POPULATION REALLY?
A look at some data that questions the 1.4 Billion population estimate in China
Why do people think China’s population is much less than 1 Billion?
Let’s take a look at some numbers.
Their official number is 1.4 billion today.
Many believe China has 0.8-1.0 billion population
Some are questioning this number, stating 0.4 billion!
I wanted to take do some research on these population numbers by looking at several things:
1. Population and birth rates since 1990 for China and India
2. Vehicle sales and number of vehicles in China
3. Cellphone sales and number of cellphones in China.
4. Villages and population centers have an incentive to inflate numbers
Population and birth rates going back to 1990 should give us a clue whether today’s population number from China is realistic.
Vehicle and cellphone sales numbers are widely available and should give us at least a broad population estimate compared to the US.
Based on these findings, I believe that China’s population number is over estimated. Likely the true population is 0.8-1.0 billion.
BIRTH RATES CHINA vs. INDIA
Let’s start by comparing China and India’s population since 1990:
In 1990, China's population was approximately 1.14 billion, and India's population was around 873 million. These estimates are based on historical data and demographic trends from that period.
The interesting part now is the birth rate.
Since 1990, India’s average birth rate was twice that of China. In theory, over the past 35 years India should have overtaken China in population.
India has 1.45 billion today vs. China’s 1.42 billion.
Shouldn’t India have a lot more, or China a lot less, considering the birth rate?
If we assume that China’s 1990 population estimate of 1.14B was exaggerated to begin with, this 35 year trend seems unlikely to result in 1.42B population today.
China fertility rate ~1.3 children per couple
Rough Calculation:
1990–2000: ~1.35 (10 years)
2000–2010: ~1.32 (10 years)
2010–2020: ~1.4 (10 years, accounting for two-child policy bump)
2020–2025: ~1.1 (5 years)
Weighted average: [(1.35 × 10) + (1.32 × 10) + (1.4 × 10) + (1.1 × 5)] ÷ 35 ≈ 1.32 children per woman.
India’s fertility rate ~2.6 children per couple
Rough Calculation:
1990–2000: ~3.2 (10 years)
2000–2010: ~2.6 (10 years)
2010–2020: ~2.2 (10 years)
2020–2025: ~1.95 (5 years)
Weighted average: [(3.2 × 10) + (2.6 × 10) + (2.2 × 10) + (1.95 × 5)] ÷ 35 ≈ 2.55 children per woman.
VEHICLES in CHINA vs US
In 2024, China sold 25.6M vehicles (exluding 5.9M exports). The US sold 14.9M vehicles.
Comparing the number of vehicles on the roads, China has 352M and the US has 285M.
Roughly speaking, China sells twice the number of vehicles that the US does.
Per capita wealth is vastly different in China.
However, we are still looking at only 2x sales in China vs. the US.
CELLPHONES in China vs US
In 2024, the number of cellphones (smartphones) sold in China and the United States differed significantly due to market size, consumer behavior, and competitive dynamics. Below is a direct comparison based on available data:
China:
Total Shipments: Approximately 285 million smartphone units were shipped in 2024, reflecting a 4% year-on-year (YoY) growth.
Source: Data from Counterpoint Research and other market analyses.
United States:
Total Shipments: Exact U.S.-specific shipment figures are not explicitly detailed in the provided data, but North America (primarily the U.S.) contributed to global shipments with a 1% YoY growth. Based on global market estimates (1.22 billion units globally) and historical U.S. market share, the U.S. likely shipped around 150-170 million units in 2024.
Note: This is an estimate, as the U.S. market is significantly smaller than China’s and typically accounts for about 12-14% of global shipments.
China has 4x the number of cellphone subscription than the US (0.39B vs 1.86B).
In 2024, cellphone sales in China were ~285M vs ~170M for the US.
If the population in China was 4x of the US, you would expect this number to be a lot larger.
Cellphone sales less than 2x in China compared to the US.
WHY CHINA WOULD INFLATE NUMBERS
There are large incentives to inflating population numbers at every level. Each village gets funded by population. So the inflation starts with village population as well as student enrollment.
Roll these number up to county level, and that number is inflated again in order to get additional funding.
This padding of numbers is done at every level, resulting in a higher population estimate.
For historical perspective, China has done this before
CHINA’S HISTORY OF INFLATING NUMBERS
The Great Chinese Famine (1959–1961) was a catastrophic period during which millions died due to starvation and related causes, with estimates of deaths ranging from 15 to 45 million.
One of the key contributing factors was the overestimation of agricultural production, particularly rice, during the Great Leap Forward (1958–1962). This overestimation was rooted in systemic issues within the Chinese Communist Party's policies, incentives, and reporting mechanisms. Local officials faced intense pressure to meet or exceed centrally mandated quotas. Failure to do so was seen as disloyalty to the Communist Party, risking punishment or loss of status.
Believing in a food surplus, the government diverted labor from agriculture to industrial projects, such as backyard steel furnaces, which were largely unproductive. This reduced the workforce available for planting and harvesting, further lowering actual crop yields.
The central government’s reliance on falsified reports delayed recognition of the famine’s severity. By the time leaders like Mao and Zhou Enlai acknowledged the crisis (around 1960–1961), millions had already died.
CONCLUSION
Assuming that the 1990 China population estimate was exaggerated to begin with, China’s population today is likely 800 million to 1 billion.
Birth rates over the past 35 years do not support a 1.4 Billion population estimate.
Car sales estimate a population likely 2-3x of the US, or approximately 1 Billion.
Cellphone sales are interesting because using that data as standalone would result in a much lower population estimate for China. 600 million or less.
And there is an incentive to inflate population numbers at every stage.